Power Line has a good post [ed.: link updated to an archived link because the original was broken] on a new Gallup poll. The upshot of it is that huge numbers of Democrats say they will defect and vote for Senator McCain if the Democratic nominee is not their pick between Senators Obama and Clinton. Of Clinton supporters, 28% say they would sooner vote for McCain than for Obama, while 19% of Obama supporters would defect rather than vote for Clinton.
From Paul Mirengoff’s post:
I think this poll significantly overstates the number of Democrats who would defect in either scenario. What’s important, though, is that Obama’s defection rate if Hillary wins is much larger than Hillary’s defection rate is if Obama wins (at least according to this survey).
I agree with this. Just as countless Republican voters threatened at one point to defect rather than vote for McCain (or any other GOP candidate, in some cases), yet no real opposition movement – Ann Coulter does not count as a movement – has coalesced around abstention or defection, I suspect the Gallup poll does wildly overstate both numbers. Still, it’s a telling condemnation of the Democratic base’s loyalties this year.